Fact and Fiction

In one of Frederick Forsyth's novels - The Negotiator - there is a plot where US Oil Executives hatch a plan to overtake a middle eastern country as they are sure that world order can only be maintained if they control the oil prices, and thus they take on the burden of saving mankind. They use a premise to enter and take over Saudi Arabia. Good fiction, but these days reality is much more weird.

See this post for a study by Campbell - a renowned scientist and exploration geologist. In 1996 he states factors that will affect the global oil crisis. At the top of his list is "the pivotal role of Iraq". To quote " The net consequence, however [of the Gulf War] , has been the removal of 2- 3 Mb/d from the market under the embargo, which OPEC failed to achieve by its quota system. This has been sufficient to maintain oil prices at a moderate level, which in turn has contributed to the survival of the Saudi, Iranian and a few other regimes that depend heavily on oil revenues."

But these days, there is talk that the whole oil crisis is itself a work of fiction. There are studies that show that enough reserves exist for the near future, that technology and innovation will prolong the availability. We might not need oil that much after all...

Hmm...we can only watch and see.